NFL 2013 FEARLESS PREDICTIONS – Playoff’n & Super Bowl’n

Over the last week, I’ve been working up division by division predictions across the NFL.  But today, on the verge of full-scale NFL action breaking out, it’s time to finish the job and put it all on the line. After all, what are 32 predictions if you don’t run them down to one? So here it is, who’s going to New York City for the Super Bowl, in the order they’d play out via the standings I arrived at. As a bonus, I’ll throw in a few awards for a few guys as well, for good measure.

But before we take it there, here a recap on how it all should shake out:

NFC East                                                           NFC North

1. Redskins (10-6)                                 1. Packers (11-5)
2. Cowboys (9-7)                                   2. Bears (10-6)*
3. Giants (8-8)                                        3. Vikings (7-9)
4. Eagles (4-12)                                      4. Lions (5-11)

NFC South                                                           NFC West

1. Falcons (13-3)                                   1. Niners (12-4)
2. Saints (8-8)                                         2. Seahawks (11-5)*
3. Buccaneers (6-10)                            3. Rams (7-9)
4. Panthers (5-11)                                 4. Cardinals (5-11)

AFC East                                                             AFC North

1. Patriots (11-5)                                   1. Ravens (11-5)
2. Dolphins (7-9)                                    2. Bengals (10-6)*
3. Jets (5-11)                                            3. Steelers (10-6)*
4. Bills (4-12)                                           4. Browns (7-9)

AFC South                                                        AFC West

1. Houston (11-5)                                 1. Broncos (13-3)
2. Colts (8-8)                                           2. Chiefs (7-9)
3. Titans (6-10)                                       3. Chargers (5-11)
4. Jaguars (2-14)                                    4. Raiders (3-13)

 

WILD CARD ROUND PLAYOFFS

Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

Seattle Seahawks over Washington Redskins

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans over Pittsburgh Steelers

DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS

Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers

Denver Broncos over Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans over New England Patriots

NFC/AFC CHAMPIONSHIPS

San Francisco 49ers over Seattle Seahawks

Houston Texans over Denver Broncos

 

The MVP from two years back has as much of a load on his shoulders as ever before. And if he delivers on promise for the Pack again, an addition to his trophy case will be well deserved.

AWARD TOUR

Now before throwing it all on the line with the Super Bowl picks, let me back up and get some award picks for the season. It is impossibly difficult to select an MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive/Offensive Player of the Year before the season begins. So much goes into it, and it can change on a week to week basis. But, it’s Kickoff, so why not.

MVP—Aaron Rodgers: The Packers are leaning on him more than ever, and really, the team just behind him in the North via Chicago is the better overall team. But all things considered, the Pack will still take the North and it should come via a virtuoso performance from the league’s best QB.

Offensive Player of the Year—Peyton Manning: It is going to be a close call over Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and Andrew Luck, but there’s a chance that Peyton pulls off one of the great offensive efforts in league history. He’s got the tools, the right division and a pretty decent head start to do it all. 50-45 touchdowns should be in his sights.

Defensive Player of the Year—Richard Sherman: Doesn’t seem like a stretch to think that the Seahawks will have the best defense in the NFL. And Sherman is not only the ringleader on the microphone, but also the catalyst of the entire attack. QBs have no choice but to challenge him due to the depth of the team around him. And he will make the most of it in some pretty big games.

Offensive Rookie of the Year—Tavon Austin: The impact may not be immediate…but then again maybe it will be. With a home run threat like Austin, there is no telling when or where he may make an impact from for the Rams. And in a style similar to what Percy Harvin did a few years back, Austin could be on par for a huge debut.

Defensive Rookie of the Year—Kenny Vaccaro: The Saints defense will be challenged yet again, but this time they’ll be met by a legitimate threat to bring the ball right back at them. Vaccaro was the perfect addition to a team that needs to keep its pass happy QB schedule honest.

And finally…

SUPER BOWL XLVIII –HOUSTON TEXANS vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

The Texans have been on the verge for a few years, while the Niners have rapidly reinvented themselves underneath Jim Harbaugh and Colin Kaepernick. With both teams touting strong defenses and rushing attacks, it could come down to who can find room to make the big play first. When it comes to that element, the Texans have the biggest threat in Andre Johnson, but the Niners have the most options to find room for one between Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and by that time, Michael Crabtree.

It will be tight and February in New York may not have the best conditions for a highwire act, and that’s where it favors the road options of the Niners with the ball in their hands, as well as the best linebacker group in football getting plenty of shots on Arian Foster and Ben Tate. This favors San Francisco, and it nets them their first Super Bowl since 1994.

NFL 2013 FEARLESS PREDICTIONS – NFC NORTH

The NFC North is a nasty division. There’s more football history between its teams than any other division can boast, and they are still fighting their inherited rivalries to the bone to this day. It boasts the previous two league MVPs, as well as one of the most brutal defenses and maybe the most superhuman receiver the league has seen. In spite of all of these elements, the result has been the same the last three years: the Packers come out on top at the end.

If one thing is true in rivalries, it is that no one side stays up forever. 2012 saw the Vikings crawl from the bottom of the division and into the playoffs, while it saw the Lions and Bears both slide out of the playoff picture in years where it was foreseen they could dominate the league.

A year later, many of those same elements are in play, but there are new twists that bring each as close together as they have been in years. Can the Pack continue to impose its will, despite some crucial injuries that won’t heal this season, or can the Vikings continue to ride AD further into the promised land of February football? Or could the Bears offense get up to speed with its defense and close the gap? Or could the Lions do the opposite? At any rate, here is how the NFC North should shake out.

ALL-DIVISION TEAM

QB: Aaron Rodgers, RB: Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, WR: Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, TE: Brandon Pettigrew, OT: Jermon Bushrod, Matt Kalil, OG: Josh Sitton, TJ Lang, C: Roberto Garza

DE: Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, DT/NT: Ndamukong Suh, Kevin Williams, OLB: Clay Matthews, Lance Briggs, MLB: AJ Hawk, EJ Henderson, CB: Charles Tillman, Tramon Williams, FS: Harrison Smith, SS: Major Wright

K: Robbie Gould, P: Tommy Masthay, KR: Randall Cobb, PR: Devin Hester

 

 

Cutler has been one of the most divisive quarterbacks in the NFL over the course of his career, but an increase in protection could put many doubters to rest.

CHICAGO BEARS (10-6 in 2012)

The Good—Despite the rather unceremonious, sudden retirement of longtime face of the organization Brian Urlacher, the defense is still one of the most aggressive in the league. It finished in the top 10 in both fewest passing and rushing yards a year ago, and led the NFL in takeaways with 44. With Julius Peppers, Henry Melton and Lance Briggs fronting the attack, and one of the best cornerback duos in the game in Peanut Tillman and Tim Jennings supporting them, points won’t come easy in the Windy.

The Bad—Is the offensive line finally ready to give Jay Cutler a fighting chance? In his four years in Chicago, Cutler has been sacked 148 times and hasn’t played a full season in three years. The hits take their toll over time, and if new additions Jermon Bushrod and Kyle Long can’t provide some sort of relief for club’s oft underrated signal caller, the corner will continue to not be turned for the Chicago offense.

X-Factor—Jermon Bushrod: The revolving door of Bears offensive tackles has turned once again, and brings Bushrod in to hopefully be a much needed protector for Cutler. He brings a clear pedigree as a Pro Bowler the previous two seasons and a Super Bowl champion in 2010. If he can continue his premier ways as his new home’s anchor, he could be the unsung difference in the Chicago season.

Schedule— CIN (L), MIN (W), @PIT (L), @DET (W), NO (L), NYG (W), @WSH (L), @GB (L), DET (W), BAL (L), @STL (W), @MIN (W), DAL (W), @CLE (W), @PHI (W), GB

Prediction—The Bears are a team that COULD be as good as any in the NFC. They have the defense to create close games. But the same question as always remains: can the offense make the plays to turn those contests into victories? A rough schedule is in store, which features trips to Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Washington and Cleveland, all teams that are in same fringe class as the Bears. A return to the playoffs should be within their grasp, even if they just equal their win total from a year ago. 10-6

 

Johnson has caught over 3,600 yards of passes over the past two seasons, but for the Lions to advance as a team, it can’t just be on him get them there.

DETROIT LIONS (4-12 in 2012)

The Good—The offense continues to grow beyond Stafford-to-Megatron. On the heels of Calvin Johnson’s historically good 2012, the team went out and grabbed a much needed diverse backfield threat in Reggie Bush, who they hope can stabilize a position that has been endlessly in flux the last few seasons. Add in the emergence of wide receiver Ryan Broyles, and the Lions offense continues to quietly grow into a lot more than a one-trick pony.

The Bad—The defense is still way too little bend, and too much break. The addition of rookie Ezekial Ansah will add some diversity to the pass rush outside of Ndamukong Suh, but there are still plenty of underwhelming elements of the unit. Mainly, these include a porous secondary and an underwhelming linebacker group.

X-Factor—Joique Bell: He made the most of his first sniff of NFL action in his second year, running for 414 yards on 82 carries, good for a five yard per carry average. Now a year later, he’ll be counted on for a larger contribution, which could include a heavy amount of work in the red zone.

Schedule— MIN (W), @ARI (L), @WSH (L), CHI (L), @GB (L), @CLE (W), CIN (L), DAL (L), @CHI (L), @PIT (L), TB (W), GB (W), @PHI (W), BAL (L), NYG (L), @MIN (L)

Prediction—After what they showed in 2011, and still featuring a constantly exciting offense, the Lions are a team that always seems on the surface a bit better than they really are. They’ll have more ways to strike on offense, but still lack any consistent way to stop anyone from returning fire. It is a year at the fork in the road of progress in Detroit, and more likely than not its more like last year than the one before. 5-11

 

Cobb’s increased role in the Green Bay attack last year led to him becoming Aaron Rodgers favorite target, a role that could have an even bigger impact this fall.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5 in 2012)

The Good—Aaron Rodgers is still alive and breathing, which means that the Packers will be a problem. He’s thrown 84 touchdowns over the past two seasons against only 14 interceptions, while completing over 67% of his attempts. Despite the loss of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Rodgers is in the type of rare zone where anything he touches profits (ex—14 James Jones TDs and 954 yards from Randall Cobb in breakout 2012 efforts).

The Bad—Can the offensive line hold itself together in front of Rodgers? Starting left tackle Bryan Bulaga is out for the year with a torn ACL, and right tackle Derek Sherrod still has not returned from a broken leg that cost him the entire 2012 season. That leaves the pass-heavy offense with a rookie 4^th round pick in David Bakhtiari watching the back of the most valuable QB in the NFL.

X-Factor—Eddie Lacy: He runs with bad intentions, and looks to be a sure thing in the effort to make the Packer attack more than a one (Rodgers) dimensional attack. The Packers have gone 43 games since they had a 100 yard rusher; Lacy ran for over 130 yards four times as a junior at Alabama a year ago.

Schedule—@SF (L), WSH (W), @CIN (W), DET (W), @BAL (L), CLE (W), @MIN (L), CHI (W), PHI (W), @NYG (L), MIN (W), @DET (L), ATL (W), @DAL (W), PIT (W), @CHI (L)

Prediction—The offense is growing and the defense is steady. Yet with all of those things considered, the injuries along the line are concerning, as is the inexperience in the backfield. They should win the division for a third straight year, due to how persistent the offense is alone, but it could prove to be a rough road if their youth doesn’t learn on the fly, quickly. 10-6

 

Peterson ran for over 1,000 of his 2,097 yards in 2012 after first contact. How much help will the rebuilt Vikings offense be able to offer him a year later?

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-6 in 2012)

The Good—Minnesota only has the best running back since Barry Sanders in his absolute, untouched prime. Adrian Peterson’s near run into the NFL record book last season bulldozed the Vikings into the playoff picture, seemingly on his own. Overall, the offense should be more dynamic with additions of Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, and with the box loaded in anticipation of Peterson, each could find plenty of space to work with.

The Bad—For all of the weapons now at hand, will they be able to utilize them fully? And beyond that, can they hang in if they fall too far behind. Christian Ponder didn’t do enough in his second year to keep the team from bringing in Matt Cassel from the Chiefs to enter the picture. There is no team that can become a regular factor in the playoff picture for long with inconsistent QB play.

X-Factor—Cordarrelle Patterson: The Vikings maneuvered their way into the first round three times this Spring, and with the final selection they took a blazing receiver that could step directly into Percy Harvin’s now departed playmaking shoes. He’s raw (one season of Division I football), but also has a surplus of raw skill (4.33 40) and the shake to use them (700 receiving/300 rushing/700 return yards/10 TDs for Tennessee last year).

Schedule—@DET (L), @CHI (L), CLE (W), PIT (W), CAR (W), @NYG (W), GB (W), @DAL (L), WSH (W), @SEA (L), @GB (L), CHI (L), @BAL (L), PHI (W), @CIN (L), DET

Prediction—The offense has potential, but it is depending on a few very circumstantial elements to survive: another once-in-a-career season from Peterson, growth from Ponder at QB, Jennings staying healthy and the young receivers picking up the game in a hurry. It is an offense that threw for the second fewest yards a year ago, while giving up the 24^th most. A return to reality is likely this season, and a slight step back happens. 7-9

 

For more on the quickly upcoming NFL season in real-time, follow me on Twitter at @CheapSeatFan

 

The CHEAT SHEET in the CHEAP SEATS – NFL Week 1 Picks

The league’s best player (and mustache) vs. the league’s best defense to open the year. I’ll take it.

 

America’s greatest fall festival is back, as the NFL kicks off it’s 2012 campaign this morning. While I haven’t had time to write much in the way of previews, predictions or anything much off the diamond this year (where I’ll actually be during most of these games), there’s always time to make the weekly prediction sprint around the league.

I missed the Dallas/New York game, so I can’t count that one, so the season will be short one in the end.

 

Season Record: 0-0

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears: Andrew Luck has a tough spot to debut in, but he’ll get plenty of chances to air it out, as the Bears should run up the scoreboard, air and ground. Bears win.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns: The Browns enter the regular season still working on roster like it’s the preseason. But it’s go time now, and the Eagles have a lot to prove this year. They’ll get started today. Eagles win.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans: The Pats weren’t the steadiest they’ve ever been in the preseason, but Titans don’t have the pass rush to shake them. Patriots win.

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: Going to be closer than it would seem, if only because of Arrowhead. But it’s the regular season and the Falcons have more firepower. Falcons win.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings: This should be a matchup of the two of the best backs the game has in Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew, but with both curbed for the most part, it won’t be much of note. But the Vikings still have a bit more, so they open with a W, and some hope from AP. Vikings win.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: NOLA isn’t the most hospitable place to visit, football-wise, on a usual week. However, with the Saints reveling from the justice handed down via the overturned suspensions this week, and emotions at a high, expect a rough intro for Robert Griffin III. Saints win.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: The Bills bettered their rush and are a team that has started quick out the gates the last few years. The Jets have been more circus than serious so far. Bills spring one on the road to start up the year fast again. Bills win.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions: The Rams are starting two rookies on the outside at corner. They’ll get baptized into their post-college life by Megatron. But at least it can go nowhere but up from here, even if their record doesn’t. Lions win.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans: With or without Arian Foster, this should be the beating of the week. Texans roll and Matt Schaub makes a triumphant return from injury. Texas win.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: Game of the week easy, with the league’s toughest defense taking on its most dynamic offense. This will be a tough go for both sides, but Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau isn’t what you want to try to start a year off that ended so startlingly for the Niners back in January. The Pack wins late in the fourth.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: The two teams with the most shocking QB decisions of the preseason tie up in week one. While it isn’t an attractive matchup on paper, this could be still be a tight one. Seahawks pull it off late.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs: Cam Newton had a hell of a debut as a rook, and his sophomore start shouldn’t be too bad either. The Bucs aren’t anything exciting on D, while the Panthers could have one of the most improved offenses in the L. Panthers win out.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: It’s time to see what it’s going to be regarding Peyton Manning’s return, and the Steelers are about as gritty of a test as you’ll get. But these Steelers are slowing and shorthanded on D, running by committee and still jelling at receiver. For all of these reasons, the Broncos get the W.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are problems at home, major problems. And the Bengals will have to deal with being a target instead of a surprise this year. The Monday Night stage awaits them, and a 0-1 start does too. Ravens walk.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: The Chargers are without Ryan Mathews (or anything else on the ground) and are walking into an extra-hostile Oakland for the Monday Night week one finale. The Raider defense has some issues, and Philip Rivers can stretch the field with or without a run support. Chargers win.